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AP Potential

Expectancy Tables

Select a subject below to see the specific PSAT/NMSQT cut scores that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the PSAT/NMSQT score needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher.

Subject:

AP Art History

PSAT/NMSQT CR + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 133 155
80 121 142
70 112 134
60 106 127
50 99 120
40 93 114
30 86 107
20 78 99
10 65 86
Total N = 27,679 17,067 10,027

AP Biology

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 132 143
80 124 135
70 118 129
60 114 124
50 109 120
40 105 115
30 101 111
20 95 105
10 87 96
Total N = 205,036 107,486 74,750

AP Calculus AB*

PSAT/NMSQT Math Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 71 78
80 66 72
70 63 69
60 60 66
50 57 63
40 54 61
30 51 58
20 48 54
10 43 49
Total N = 341,698 199,723 137,231

AP Chemistry

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 136 149
80 127 140
70 121 134
60 115 129
50 111 124
40 106 119
30 101 114
20 95 108
10 85 99
Total N = 139,600 79,306 51,371

AP Computer Science

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 136 146
80 126 136
70 119 129
60 114 124
50 109 119
40 104 113
30 98 108
20 91 101
10 81 91
Total N = 21,607 13,473 10,477

AP English Language

PSAT/NMSQT CR + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 110 129
80 104 123
70 101 118
60 97 115
50 94 112
40 92 108
30 88 105
20 84 101
10 79 94
Total N = 445,235 281,967 149,890

AP English Literature

PSAT/NMSQT CR + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 120 141
80 113 134
70 109 129
60 106 126
50 103 122
40 100 119
30 96 115
20 92 110
10 86 103
Total N = 500,972 314,296 157,797

AP Environmental Science

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 128 140
80 120 131
70 114 126
60 110 122
50 106 118
40 102 113
30 98 109
20 92 104
10 84 95
Total N = 109,290 57,398 37,374

AP European History

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 181 220
80 167 205
70 158 195
60 150 186
50 143 179
40 136 171
30 128 163
20 118 152
10 104 137
Total N = 80,532 56,888 29,852

AP Government & Politics: Comparative

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 199 223
80 184 207
70 174 197
60 166 188
50 158 180
40 151 173
30 143 164
20 133 154
10 118 138
Total N = 22,037 14,397 9,722

AP Government & Politics: United States

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 195 224
80 182 210
70 173 201
60 166 193
50 159 186
40 153 179
30 145 171
20 136 162
10 123 147
Total N = 271,899 155,252 84,479

AP Human Geography

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 182 207
80 169 193
70 160 184
60 153 176
50 146 169
40 140 162
30 133 155
20 124 146
10 111 132
Total N = 25,017 15,592 9,747

AP Macroeconomics

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 139 151
80 129 141
70 122 133
60 116 127
50 111 122
40 105 117
30 99 111
20 92 103
10 82 93
Total N = 112,839 64,816 47,170

AP Microeconomics

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 133 147
80 123 137
70 117 131
60 111 125
50 106 121
40 102 116
30 96 110
20 90 104
10 80 94
Total N = 68,095 44,542 30,794

AP Music Theory

PSAT/NMSQT M + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 137 158
80 124 145
70 115 136
60 108 129
50 101 123
40 95 116
30 88 109
20 79 100
10 66 87
Total N = 19,842 12,409 7,370

AP Physics B*

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 138 156
80 128 146
70 121 140
60 116 134
50 111 129
40 106 124
30 100 119
20 93 112
10 83 102
Total N = 90,807 54,872 30,065

AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag.

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 149 159
80 137 147
70 129 139
60 122 132
50 116 126
40 110 120
30 103 113
20 95 105
10 83 92
Total N = 21,847 15,441 12,742

AP Physics C: Mechanics

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 139 154
80 129 144
70 123 137
60 117 132
50 112 127
40 107 122
30 102 116
20 95 109
10 86 99
Total N = 48,928 35,393 25,208

AP Psychology

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 174 197
80 161 182
70 152 173
60 145 165
50 139 158
40 132 150
30 125 143
20 116 133
10 103 119
Total N = 212,402 148,592 107,780

AP Statistics

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 131 146
80 122 137
70 116 131
60 112 127
50 107 122
40 103 118
30 98 113
20 93 108
10 84 99
Total N = 171,871 104,195 62,831

AP U.S. History

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 184 207
80 172 194
70 163 186
60 157 179
50 150 172
40 144 166
30 138 158
20 129 150
10 117 137
Total N = 419,099 230,479 136,139

AP World History

PSAT/NMSQT CR + M + W Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 179 205
80 167 192
70 158 183
60 151 176
50 145 169
40 139 162
30 132 155
20 123 146
10 111 133
Total N = 84,942 43,677 23,995

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