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AP Potential

Expectancy Tables

Select a subject below to see the specific PSAT/NMSQT cut scores that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the PSAT/NMSQT score needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher.

Subject:

AP Art History

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 70 76
80 65 73
70 61 70
60 59 68
50 56 65
40 52 62
30 49 59
20 45 55
10 38 49
Total N = 45,720

AP Biology

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 68.5 73
80 64 70
70 62.5 66.5
60 60 64
50 58 63
40 56.5 61
30 54.5 58.5
20 51.5 56
10 47.5 52.5
Total N = 319,963

AP Calculus AB*

Math Test Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 36 37.5
80 33 36.5
70 31 35
60 30 33
50 29 31.5
40 28.5 30.5
30 27 29.5
20 26 28.5
10 23.5 26.5
Total N = 590,333

AP Chemistry

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 71 74
80 65.5 72
70 63 69
60 61 66.5
50 58.5 64
40 56.5 62.5
30 54.5 60
20 51 57.5
10 47 53
Total N = 199,537

AP Computer Science

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 71 73.5
80 65.5 71
70 63 67.5
60 60 64
50 57.5 62.5
40 55.5 60
30 53 57.5
20 50 54.5
10 45 50
Total N = 33,299

AP English Language

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 60 68
80 57 66
70 55 63
60 54 62
50 52 60
40 51 59
30 49 57
20 48 55
10 45 52
Total N = 510,233

AP English Literature

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 66 73
80 63 71
70 61 69
60 59 68
50 57 66
40 56 64
30 54 62
20 51 60
10 48 57
Total N = 901,369

AP Environmental Science

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 65.5 72
80 62.5 68
70 60 65
60 57.5 63.5
50 56 61.5
40 54.5 59.5
30 52.5 57.5
20 50 55.5
10 46.5 51
Total N = 181,153

AP European History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1270 1470
80 1180 1410
70 1140 1360
60 1090 1300
50 1040 1250
40 1000 1210
30 950 1160
20 890 1100
10 820 1010
Total N = 121,749

AP Government & Politics: Comparative

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1380 1480
80 1280 1420
70 1230 1370
60 1180 1300
50 1140 1260
40 1100 1220
30 1060 1170
20 1000 1120
10 900 1030
Total N = 39,126

AP Government & Politics: United States

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1360 1480
80 1270 1430
70 1220 1390
60 1180 1340
50 1140 1290
40 1110 1250
30 1060 1210
20 1010 1160
10 920 1080
Total N = 505,103

AP Human Geography

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1270 1420
80 1200 1350
70 1150 1280
60 1110 1240
50 1070 1200
40 1030 1160
30 990 1120
20 930 1070
10 860 980
Total N = 40,344

AP Macroeconomics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 71.5 74.5
80 66.5 72
70 63.5 68.5
60 61 65.5
50 58.5 63.5
40 56 61.5
30 54 58.5
20 50.5 55.5
10 45.5 50.5
Total N = 210,735

AP Microeconomics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 68 73.5
80 64 71
70 61.5 67.5
60 58.5 64.5
50 56.5 63
40 54.5 61
30 52 58.5
20 49.5 56
10 45 51.5
Total N = 125,943

AP Music Theory

Math + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 70.5 76
80 64.5 73
70 60.5 70.5
60 58 67.5
50 55 63.5
40 52 61
30 49 58.5
20 44.5 55
10 38.5 48.5
Total N = 31,104

AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag.

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 74 76
80 71 73.5
70 66.5 71
60 63.5 68
50 61 65
40 58 63
30 55.5 59.5
20 52 56
10 46.5 50.5
Total N = 40,572

AP Physics C: Mechanics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 71 75
80 66.5 72.5
70 63.5 71
60 61.5 68
50 59 65
40 57 63.5
30 54.5 61
20 52 58
10 47 54
Total N = 89,669

AP Psychology

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1230 1370
80 1150 1270
70 1100 1220
60 1060 1170
50 1020 1140
40 980 1100
30 930 1050
20 880 990
10 820 890
Total N = 337,894

AP Statistics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 67.5 73
80 63.5 71
70 61 68
60 59 65.6
50 57 64
40 55 62
30 53 60
20 50.5 57.5
10 46.5 54
Total N = 308,268

AP U.S. History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1270 1420
80 1200 1340
70 1150 1280
60 1120 1240
50 1080 1200
40 1040 1170
30 1000 1130
20 940 1070
10 870 1000
Total N = 452,416

AP World History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1250 1420
80 1180 1340
70 1130 1270
60 1090 1230
50 1050 1190
40 1010 1150
30 960 1110
20 910 1060
10 840 970
Total N = 93,941

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