Expectancy Tables

View the available subjects below to see the specific cut scores on the SAT Suite of Assessments that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 3 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the score on the SAT Suite needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 3 or higher.

AP Art History

Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 700
80 630
70 590
60 550
50 520
40 490
30 450
20 410
10 410
Total N = 36,698

AP Biology

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1190
80 1130
70 1090
60 1060
50 1030
40 1000
30 970
20 930
10 870
Total N = 110,966

AP Calculus AB*

Math Section Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 700
80 660
70 620
60 600
50 570
40 550
30 520
20 490
10 450
Total N = 480,485

AP Chemistry

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1220
80 1150
70 1090
60 1050
50 1010
40 970
30 930
20 880
10 800
Total N = 85,797

AP Computer Science A

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1390
80 1300
70 1230
60 1180
50 1130
40 1080
30 1020
20 960
10 860
Total N = 85,611

AP Computer Science Principles*

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1240
80 1160
70 1100
60 1060
50 1010
40 970
30 930
20 870
10 790
Total N = 45,640

AP English Language

Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 620
80 590
70 560
60 550
50 530
40 510
30 490
20 470
10 430
Total N = 200,195

AP English Literature

Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 580
80 550
70 520
60 500
50 490
40 470
30 450
20 420
10 390
Total N = 221,697

AP Environmental Science

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1260
80 1200
70 1150
60 1120
50 1080
40 1050
30 1020
20 970
10 910
Total N = 91,279

AP European History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1290
80 1200
70 1140
60 1090
50 1050
40 1010
30 960
20 900
10 860
Total N = 97,535

AP Government & Politics: Comparative

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1300
80 1210
70 1150
60 1110
50 1060
40 1020
30 970
20 920
10 830
Total N = 13,325

AP Government & Politics: United States

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1340
80 1260
70 1210
60 1160
50 1120
40 1080
30 1030
20 980
10 900
Total N = 461,065

AP Human Geography

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1230
80 1150
70 1090
60 1050
50 1000
40 960
30 910
20 860
10 860
Total N = 76,080

AP Macroeconomics

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1330
80 1240
70 1180
60 1130
50 1080
40 1040
30 990
20 930
10 840
Total N = 113,614

AP Microeconomics

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1320
80 1230
70 1170
60 1120
50 1070
40 1020
30 970
20 910
10 820
Total N = 62,431

AP Music Theory

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1370
80 1250
70 1170
60 1110
50 1050
40 990
30 920
20 860
10 860
Total N = 25,549

AP Physics 1*

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1420
80 1350
70 1300
60 1250
50 1220
40 1180
30 1140
20 1090
10 1010
Total N = 238,540

AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag.

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1500
80 1390
70 1330
60 1270
50 1220
40 1170
30 1120
20 1050
10 950
Total N = 42,468

AP Physics C: Mechanics

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1360
80 1280
70 1230
60 1180
50 1140
40 1100
30 1060
20 1000
10 920
Total N = 95,021

AP Psychology

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1230
80 1150
70 1090
60 1050
50 1010
40 970
30 920
20 870
10 860
Total N = 426,236

AP Seminar

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1120
80 1020
70 960
60 900
50 860
40 860
30 860
20 860
10 860
Total N = 45,919

AP Statistics

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1330
80 1260
70 1210
60 1170
50 1140
40 1100
30 1060
20 1010
10 940
Total N = 342,715

AP U.S. History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1260
80 1190
70 1140
60 1100
50 1060
40 1020
30 980
20 930
10 860
Total N = 640,108

AP World History: Modern

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3
90 1150
80 1080
70 1030
60 990
50 960
40 920
30 880
20 830
10 760
Total N = 60,955