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AP Potential

Expectancy Tables

Select a subject below to see the specific PSAT/NMSQT cut scores that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the PSAT/NMSQT score needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher.

Subject:

AP Art History

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72 76
80 67 75
70 63 72
60 60 69
50 57 67
40 53 64
30 49 61
20 45 56
10 38 50
Total N = 45,720

AP Biology

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 70.5 75.5
80 66.5 71.5
70 64 68.5
60 61.5 66.5
50 59.5 64.5
40 57.5 62.5
30 55 60
20 52 57
10 48.5 53
Total N = 319,963

AP Calculus AB*

Math Test Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 37.5 38
80 35 38
70 32.5 36
60 31.5 35
50 30 33
40 28.5 32
30 28 30.5
20 26 28.5
10 24 26.5
Total N = 590,333

AP Chemistry

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72.5 76
80 68 73.5
70 65 71
60 62.5 68.5
50 60 66.5
40 57.5 64
30 55 61.5
20 51.5 58.5
10 47.5 53.5
Total N = 199,537

AP Computer Science

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72.5 76
80 68 72.5
70 64.5 69
60 61.5 66.5
50 59 64
40 56.5 61.5
30 53.5 58.5
20 50.5 55
10 45.5 50.5
Total N = 33,299

AP English Language

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 61 70
80 58 67
70 56 65
60 55 64
50 53 62
40 51 60
30 50 58
20 48 56
10 44 53
Total N = 510,233

AP English Literature

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 68 75
80 65 73
70 62 71
60 60 69
50 58 68
40 57 66
30 55 64
20 52 62
10 48 58
Total N = 901,369

AP Environmental Science

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 68 73.5
80 64 69.5
70 61.5 67.5
60 59 65.5
50 57 63
40 55 61
30 53 59
20 50.5 56.5
10 47 52
Total N = 181,153

AP European History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1320 1520
80 1220 1450
70 1160 1400
60 1110 1350
50 1060 1300
40 1020 1250
30 960 1200
20 890 1120
10 800 1030
Total N = 121,749

AP Government & Politics: Comparative

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1420 1520
80 1330 1470
70 1270 1410
60 1210 1350
50 1170 1310
40 1120 1260
30 1070 1210
20 1010 1140
10 910 1040
Total N = 39,126

AP Government & Politics: United States

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1400 1520
80 1320 1480
70 1260 1430
60 1210 1380
50 1170 1340
40 1130 1300
30 1080 1250
20 1030 1190
10 930 1100
Total N = 505,103

AP Human Geography

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1320 1470
80 1230 1390
70 1180 1330
60 1130 1290
50 1090 1240
40 1050 1200
30 1000 1140
20 940 1090
10 850 1000
Total N = 40,344

AP Macroeconomics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 73 76
80 68.5 73.5
70 65.5 70.5
60 62.5 68
50 60 65.5
40 57 63
30 54.5 60
20 51 56.5
10 46 51
Total N = 210,735

AP Microeconomics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 70 76
80 66 72.5
70 63 69
60 60 67
50 57.5 65
40 55.5 62.5
30 52.5 60
20 50 57
10 45 52
Total N = 125,943

AP Music Theory

Math + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72.5 76
80 67 75.5
70 63 72
60 59.5 69
50 56.5 66
40 53 63
30 49.5 60
20 45 56
10 38 49
Total N = 31,404

AP Physics 1*

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 75 76
80 70.5 76
70 68 75.5
60 65.5 73
50 63.5 71.5
40 61 69
30 58.5 67
20 55.5 64
10 51 59.5
Total N = 291,987

AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag.

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 76 76
80 72.5 76
70 68.5 72.5
60 65.5 70
50 62.5 67.5
40 59.5 64.5
30 56.5 61
20 52.5 57
10 47 51
Total N = 40,572

AP Physics C: Mechanics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72.5 76
80 68.5 75
70 65.5 72.5
60 63 69.5
50 60.5 67.5
40 58 65.5
30 55.5 62.5
20 52.5 59.5
10 48 54.5
Total N = 89,669

AP Psychology

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1270 1410
80 1180 1320
70 1120 1260
60 1080 1210
50 1030 1160
40 1000 1120
30 940 1070
20 890 1000
10 800 900
Total N = 337,894

AP Statistics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 69 76
80 65.5 72.5
70 62.5 69.5
60 60.5 68
50 58 66
40 56 63.5
30 53.5 61.5
20 51 58.5
10 47 54.5
Total N = 308,268

AP U.S. History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1320 1460
80 1240 1380
70 1180 1330
60 1140 1290
50 1100 1240
40 1060 1200
30 1020 1150
20 950 1090
10 870 1010
Total N = 452,416

AP World History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1300 1470
80 1210 1380
70 1160 1320
60 1110 1270
50 1070 1230
40 1020 1180
30 980 1130
20 910 1070
10 820 980
Total N = 93,941

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