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EPS Data Sources

High School Projections

The High School Projections – data source contains projections for the total number of public school seniors and graduates in each state and each of the 304 EPS markets across the country.  This data source is generally updated in late-July, as part of the annual EPS Release.

High School Seniors three years from now, the students who are currently ninth graders will be high school seniors.  To estimate how many of the ninth graders in a given market will actually attain the twelfth grade, public school enrollment data for grades 7 through 12 in that market were compiled for the current year and the three years following from data collected by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).  [Note that the latest data available from NCES is generally two years behind the current school year; therefore, the number of twelfth graders three years from now is usually projected from the number of seventh graders two years ago.]

Grade-progression ratios for each pair of consecutive school years were calculated and then averaged over several consecutive years to remove any enrollment irregularities in a given pair of school years. The appropriate grade-level enrollments for the most recent data available from NCES were multiplied by the smoothed grade-progression ratios.  [For example, the projected number of high school seniors in a given market in 2014 was determined by multiplying the number of seventh graders in 2009 by the 7-8, 8-9, 9-10, 10-11, and 11-12 grade-progression ratios].

High School Graduates projected numbers of public high school graduates for all geomarkets within a given state incorporate average state ratios of graduates to 12th graders developed for High School Graduates: "Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992 to 2022", published jointly by Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) and the College Board.  The projected number of public high school seniors in each market of a state was multiplied by the statewide ratio for public schools to arrive at a projected number of public school graduates for each market.